Over the course of the World Cup warmup matches, England have scored 133 points while conceding only 47. In one game alone the Red Roses marked up more points than they conceded over their entire warmup campaign. On paper, this is very impressive, but in practice where does this leave England? Can they lift the Webb Ellis Cup in Yokohama on November 2nd, or are they in for another heartbreaking repeat of 2015?
On September 6th the teams of England and Italy travelled to the Northern hub of Newcastle, facing one another in the final match before both teams head off to Japan. Many took the result to be a given: Italy has famously never beaten the English and – while not at Twickenham – it was unlikely the record was going to be broken on home turf. However, as referee Ben O’Keeffe’s whistle went for half time with the hosts only up by three penalties to nil, I couldn’t help but wonder: where was the fire from the Ireland game? Other than a few chances for the Italians (that failed due to individual error rather than English defence), the first half was essentially a stalemate with very few highlights. Had Italy not fumbled the ball in those first few minutes, perhaps we would be talking about another game. Nonetheless, by the end of the match England looked very much in control. While they have never lost to the Italians, this was the first time they had been left with nothing to show for their courageous, but ultimately futile, defending. On the surface, this match may look just another win against another experimental side before the real event begins, but there are certainly very positive things England fans can take from the match in St James Park.
For example, the difference in styles between the prop combinations of Marler/Cole and Genge/Sinckler. According the ESPN stats (unfortunately I cannot find a replay of the match and can not confirm this) when they were on the pitch, Genge and Sinckler combined made 20 runs (12 and 8 respectively), ran 47 metres total (25 and 22 respectively), both beat multiple defenders and Genge even nabbed a try from a rolling maul. On the other hand, Cole and Marler made one run between them, that being Cole was who ran a sole metre. So, clearly Genge and Sinckler and the duo for England, right?
Not necessarily. The benefit of Cole and Marler is in their holding and their defence. Cole was on for 32 minutes against Italy, and Marler 36, while both of them made more tackles (14 altogether compared to 8 for Genge/Sinckler) and missed fewer (Cole missed one while Marler missed none, compared to Genge/Sinckler missing 2). Granted, when Genge and Sinckler came on England were solidly in the drivers seat, but these stats show us two very distinct strategies that Jones can use in Japan. With Marler and Cole, he can control games with more confidence, knowing they can help create a solid line in defence and strong foundation in attack, from which England can set up slow ball set moves, kick for territory or try to utilise May on the wing for chases. On the other hand, should Jones want a more explosive attack and heightened pressure on the opposition, he can use the deft hands of Sinckler and sheer running power of Genge. This depth and tight and looseness is extremely valuable, and grant England the adaptability they have often lacked in recent years.
Furthermore, the game only solidified England’s domination at the lineout. Even without Itoje or Kruis, England once again showing the depth in their pack, Lawes put in a fantastic effort throughout the game and Ewels (replacing Launchbury at 32 minutes for a back problem), a man not even in the World Cup squad, stated his claim for a place should a lock be injured during the tournament. The lineout is a key area of the English game plan: after every restart, England would kick the ball straight into touch in their opponents half, so they may have time to form a solid defensive structure rather than scramble for an attack line in their own territory. Hence, by attempting to steal the subsequent Italian lineout England turned every restart into an opportunity to attack their opponents, keeping the pressure on Italy. It clearly worked, as England won all of their 7 lineouts, whereas Italy won 12 of their 18 lineouts (England stealing a solid third of them). This dominance will definitely be tested by the strong packs of teams such as Argentina, South Africa and Wales, but the success shown here and during the Ireland match will no doubt brew confidence within the England camp.
So, where does England stand on the tournament in the Land of the Rising Sun? The bookies are clearly favourable, most offering odds of 4 or 5-1, only behind favourites New Zealand (and often the same as South Africa). However, we must remember that England has not faced a Southern Hemisphere team since they beat Australia in Twickenham almost 11 months ago. Yes, this side has certainly improved since then, looking every bit the effective and exciting team every England fan will want to watch. But their rivals have also been improving; Argentina in the pools having most of their players reach the Super Rugby final; a potential quarter final against the toughest looking South African squad in years, and beyond that a semi final against the current world champions New Zealand, looking for that historic third title in a row. It is a solid wager to place England on getting to the semi final, but, for the first time since the birth of the Rugby World Cup, it is truly too close between the top teams to safely say who will make it to the final. One thing, however, is glaringly clear: this tournament is going to be a fascinating and nail-biting contest, and I cannot wait for it to begin.